The model estimates 2.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.90 for Mainz. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Borussia Dortmund and 6 for Mainz, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Borussia Dortmund · 65%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Borussia Dortmund is going head to head with Mainz on January 09, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Bundesliga — Round 15.
Borussia Dortmund take on Mainz in the Bundesliga on 9 January 2027 at 00:00.
Borussia Dortmund are currently placed 3rd in the table with 19 points, while Mainz occupy 11th position with 10 points.
Borussia Dortmund come into this match with 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Mainz have 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 20 recorded meetings, Borussia Dortmund have 12 wins against Mainz, with 4 draws.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win with probability 65%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 3.39. Over 2.5: 66%. BTTS: 55%.




Borussia Dortmund are on a run of 6 consecutive undefeated matches.
In their last 6 matches, Borussia Dortmund have been unbeaten on 6 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Borussia Dortmund's last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Mainz's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Mainz's last 6 matches.
Mainz have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.