The model estimates 1.76 goals for Paderborn and 1.45 for Mainz. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Paderborn and 6 for Mainz, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Paderborn · 42%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Paderborn is going head to head with Mainz on January 23, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Bundesliga — Round 18.
Paderborn take on Mainz in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2027 at 00:00.
Paderborn are currently placed 14th in the table with 8 points, while Mainz occupy 7th position with 10 points.
Paderborn come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Mainz have 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 7 recorded meetings, Mainz have 4 wins against Paderborn, with 3 draws.
Prediction: Paderborn to win with probability 44%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 3.22. Over 2.5: 62%. BTTS: 65%.




In their last 6 matches, Paderborn have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Mainz's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Mainz's last 6 matches.
Mainz score an average of 2.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.