The model estimates 1.44 goals for Sertanense and 1.22 for Nogueirense. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Sertanense and 6 for Nogueirense, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Nogueirense · 37%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Sertanense is going head to head with Nogueirense on January 17, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Campeonato de Portugal — Round 14.
Sertanense take on Nogueirense in the Campeonato de Portugal on 17 January 2027 at 00:00.
Sertanense are currently placed 46th in the table with 4 points, while Nogueirense occupy 32nd position with 7 points.
Sertanense come into this match with 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Nogueirense have 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 6 recorded meetings, Nogueirense have 2 wins against Sertanense, with 3 draws.
Prediction: Sertanense to win with probability 40%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 2.66. Over 2.5: 50%. BTTS: 55%.




Sertanense have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Sertanense have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Sertanense's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Nogueirense have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Nogueirense have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Nogueirense's last 6 matches.