The model estimates 1.32 goals for UD Aretxabaleta and 1.78 for Leioa. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for UD Aretxabaleta and 6 for Leioa, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Leioa · 40%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
UD Aretxabaleta is going head to head with Leioa on December 06, 2026 at 20:00. This match is part of Spain Tercera Division Group 4 — Round 14.
UD Aretxabaleta take on Leioa in the Spain Tercera Division Group 4 on 6 December 2026 at 20:00.
UD Aretxabaleta are currently placed 7th in the table with 14 points, while Leioa occupy 1st position with 16 points.
UD Aretxabaleta come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Leioa have 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 4 recorded meetings, UD Aretxabaleta have 3 wins against Leioa.
Prediction: Leioa to win with probability 44%. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Avg goals: 3.11. Over 2.5: 60%. BTTS: 62%.


In their last 6 matches, UD Aretxabaleta have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
UD Aretxabaleta score an average of 1.50 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of UD Aretxabaleta's last 6 home matches.
Leioa are on a run of 6 consecutive undefeated matches.
In their last 6 matches, Leioa have been unbeaten on 6 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 6 of Leioa's last 6 matches.