The model estimates 1.54 goals for Os Marialvas and 0.59 for Nogueirense. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Os Marialvas and 6 for Nogueirense, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Os Marialvas · 58%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Os Marialvas is going head to head with Nogueirense on December 13, 2026 at 18:00. This match is part of Campeonato de Portugal — Round 11.
Os Marialvas take on Nogueirense in the Campeonato de Portugal on 13 December 2026 at 18:00.
Os Marialvas are currently placed 6th in the table with 13 points, while Nogueirense occupy 32nd position with 7 points.
Os Marialvas come into this match with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Nogueirense have 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Os Marialvas to win with probability 54%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.14. Over 2.5: 36%. BTTS: 37%.




In their last 6 matches, Os Marialvas have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Os Marialvas have won 4 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Os Marialvas's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Nogueirense have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Nogueirense have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Nogueirense's last 6 matches.