The model estimates 1.80 goals for Merthyr Town and 0.98 for Southport. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Merthyr Town and 6 for Southport, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Merthyr Town · 53%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Merthyr Town is going head to head with Southport on April 17, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of England National League North — Round 45.
Merthyr Town take on Southport in the England National League North on 17 April 2027 at 00:00.
Merthyr Town are currently placed 19th in the table with 16 points, while Southport occupy 23rd position with 10 points.
Merthyr Town come into this match with 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Southport have 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 2 recorded meetings, Merthyr Town have 1 win against Southport.
Prediction: Merthyr Town to win with probability 54%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 2.78. Over 2.5: 53%. BTTS: 54%.




Merthyr Town have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Merthyr Town's last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Merthyr Town's last 6 matches.
Southport have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Southport have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Southport's last 6 matches.