The model estimates 1.83 goals for Jong AZ Alkmaar and 2.79 for Heracles. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Jong AZ Alkmaar and 6 for Heracles, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Heracles · 49%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Jong AZ Alkmaar is going head to head with Heracles on January 18, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Netherlands Erstedivision — Round 22.
Jong AZ Alkmaar take on Heracles in the Netherlands Erstedivision on 18 January 2027 at 00:00.
Jong AZ Alkmaar are currently placed 8th in the table with 17 points, while Heracles occupy 1st position with 29 points.
Jong AZ Alkmaar come into this match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Heracles have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 3 recorded meetings, Heracles have 2 wins against Jong AZ Alkmaar, with 1 draw.
Prediction: Heracles to win with probability 50%. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Avg goals: 4.63. Over 2.5: 84%. BTTS: 80%.




Both teams have scored in 5 of Jong AZ Alkmaar's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Jong AZ Alkmaar have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Jong AZ Alkmaar have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Heracles have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Heracles have won by 2+ goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
Heracles score an average of 2.17 goals per game across their last 6 matches.