The model estimates 1.40 goals for Hoffenheim and 0.91 for Sturm Graz. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Hoffenheim and 6 for Sturm Graz, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Hoffenheim · 47%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Hoffenheim is going head to head with Sturm Graz on November 26, 2026 at 20:00. This match is part of UEFA Europa League — Round 5.
Hoffenheim take on Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on 26 November 2026 at 20:00.
Hoffenheim are currently placed 23rd in the table with 3 points, while Sturm Graz occupy 19th position with 4 points.
Hoffenheim come into this match with 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Sturm Graz have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Hoffenheim to win with probability 47%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.32. Over 2.5: 41%. BTTS: 47%.




There have been over 2.5 goals in 6 of Hoffenheim's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Hoffenheim's last 6 matches.
Hoffenheim score an average of 2.17 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Sturm Graz have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Sturm Graz's last 6 matches.
Sturm Graz score an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.