The model estimates 0.80 goals for Covilha and 1.39 for Os Belenenses. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Covilha and 6 for Os Belenenses, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Os Belenenses · 50%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Covilha is going head to head with Os Belenenses on January 17, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Liga 3 — Round 16.
Covilha take on Os Belenenses in the Liga 3 on 17 January 2027 at 00:00.
Covilha are currently placed 17th in the table with 7 points, while Os Belenenses occupy 1st position with 17 points.
Covilha come into this match with 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Os Belenenses have 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 1 recorded meeting, Covilha have yet to beat Os Belenenses, with 1 draw.
Prediction: Os Belenenses to win with probability 45%. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Avg goals: 2.19. Over 2.5: 37%. BTTS: 43%.




Covilha have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Covilha have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Covilha's last 6 matches.
Os Belenenses are on a run of 6 consecutive undefeated matches.
In their last 6 matches, Os Belenenses have been unbeaten on 6 occasions.
Os Belenenses have won 4 of their last 6 matches.