The model estimates 1.83 goals for Alverca and 1.24 for Marítimo. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Alverca and 6 for Marítimo, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Alverca · 45%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Alverca is going head to head with Marítimo on January 10, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 17.
Alverca take on Marítimo in the Primeira Liga on 10 January 2027 at 00:00.
Alverca are currently placed 7th in the table with 11 points, while Marítimo occupy 14th position with 8 points.
Alverca come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Marítimo have 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 13 recorded meetings, Marítimo have 5 wins against Alverca, with 5 draws.
Prediction: Alverca to win with probability 47%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 3.07. Over 2.5: 59%. BTTS: 61%.




In their last 6 matches, Alverca have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Alverca's last 6 matches.
Alverca score an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
Marítimo have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Marítimo have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Marítimo's last 6 matches.