The model estimates 1.33 goals for Estrela Amadora and 1.74 for Alverca. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Estrela Amadora and 6 for Alverca, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Alverca · 42%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Estrela Amadora is going head to head with Alverca on January 24, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 19.
Estrela Amadora take on Alverca in the Primeira Liga on 24 January 2027 at 00:00.
Estrela Amadora are currently placed 12th in the table with 10 points, while Alverca occupy 7th position with 11 points.
Estrela Amadora come into this match with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Alverca have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 15 recorded meetings, Estrela Amadora have 8 wins against Alverca, with 3 draws.
Prediction: Alverca to win with probability 42%. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Avg goals: 3.07. Over 2.5: 59%. BTTS: 62%.




Estrela Amadora have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Estrela Amadora concede an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 home matches, Estrela Amadora have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
In their last 6 matches, Alverca have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Alverca's last 6 matches.
Alverca score an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.