The model estimates 1.96 goals for Ajax and 0.93 for Thun. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Ajax and 6 for Thun, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Ajax · 49%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Ajax is going head to head with Thun on November 26, 2026 at 17:45. This match is part of UEFA Europa Conference League — Round 4.
Ajax take on Thun in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 26 November 2026 at 17:45.
Ajax are currently placed 13th in the table with 3 points, while Thun occupy 32nd position with 0 points.
Ajax come into this match with 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Thun have 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Ajax to win with probability 57%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 2.90. Over 2.5: 55%. BTTS: 54%.
AJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUAJATHUThere have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Ajax's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Ajax's last 6 matches.
Ajax score an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
Thun have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Thun have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.
Thun concede an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
