The model estimates 1.39 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.02 for Alverca. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Vitoria Guimaraes and 6 for Alverca, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Vitoria Guimaraes · 43%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Vitoria Guimaraes is going head to head with Alverca on December 13, 2026 at 19:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 14.
Vitoria Guimaraes take on Alverca in the Primeira Liga on 13 December 2026 at 19:00.
Vitoria Guimaraes are currently placed 13th in the table with 8 points, while Alverca occupy 7th position with 11 points.
Vitoria Guimaraes come into this match with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Alverca have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes to win with probability 43%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.41. Over 2.5: 43%. BTTS: 50%.




Vitoria Guimaraes have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Vitoria Guimaraes's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 home matches, Vitoria Guimaraes have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
In their last 6 matches, Alverca have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Alverca's last 6 matches.
Alverca score an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.