The model estimates 1.10 goals for Vila Mea and 0.99 for Ponte da Barca. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Vila Mea and 6 for Ponte da Barca, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Vila Mea · 50%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Vila Mea is going head to head with Ponte da Barca on January 17, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Campeonato de Portugal — Round 14.
Vila Mea take on Ponte da Barca in the Campeonato de Portugal on 17 January 2027 at 00:00.
Vila Mea are currently placed 22nd in the table with 8 points, while Ponte da Barca occupy 47th position with 4 points.
Vila Mea come into this match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Ponte da Barca have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 1 recorded meeting, Vila Mea have 1 win against Ponte da Barca.
Prediction: Vila Mea and Ponte da Barca to draw with probability 32%. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Avg goals: 2.09. Over 2.5: 35%. BTTS: 44%.




In their last 6 matches, Vila Mea have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Vila Mea have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Vila Mea's last 6 home matches.
Ponte da Barca have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Ponte da Barca have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
Ponte da Barca have lost 4 of their last 6 away matches.