The model estimates 1.71 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.40 for Wellington Phoenix. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Fallback model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Melbourne Victory and 6 for Wellington Phoenix, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Melbourne Victory · 44%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Melbourne Victory is going head to head with Wellington Phoenix on December 29, 2026 at 11:00. This match is part of A-League Men.
Melbourne Victory take on Wellington Phoenix in the A-League Men on 29 December 2026 at 11:00.
Melbourne Victory are currently placed 8th in the table with 1 points, while Wellington Phoenix occupy 1st position with 6 points.
Melbourne Victory come into this match with 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Wellington Phoenix have 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 1 recorded meeting, Wellington Phoenix have 1 win against Melbourne Victory.
Prediction: Melbourne Victory to win with probability 44%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 3.10. Over 2.5: 60%. BTTS: 63%.




Melbourne Victory have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Melbourne Victory's last 6 matches.
Melbourne Victory concede an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Wellington Phoenix have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Wellington Phoenix's last 6 matches.
Wellington Phoenix have won 4 of their last 6 matches.