The model estimates 1.41 goals for Estrela Calheta and 1.58 for Florgrade. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Estrela Calheta and 6 for Florgrade, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Florgrade · 38%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Estrela Calheta is going head to head with Florgrade on March 21, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Campeonato de Portugal — Round 23.
Estrela Calheta take on Florgrade in the Campeonato de Portugal on 21 March 2027 at 00:00.
Estrela Calheta are currently placed 45th in the table with 5 points, while Florgrade occupy 15th position with 10 points.
Estrela Calheta come into this match with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Florgrade have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Florgrade to win with probability 38%. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Avg goals: 3.00. Over 2.5: 58%. BTTS: 62%.




Estrela Calheta have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Estrela Calheta's last 6 matches.
Estrela Calheta concede an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 5 of Florgrade's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Florgrade have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Florgrade have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.