The model estimates 0.72 goals for Castro Daire and 1.11 for Machico. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Castro Daire and 6 for Machico, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Draw · 36%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Castro Daire is going head to head with Machico on December 13, 2026 at 18:00. This match is part of Campeonato de Portugal — Round 11.
Castro Daire take on Machico in the Campeonato de Portugal on 13 December 2026 at 18:00.
Castro Daire are currently placed 17th in the table with 9 points, while Machico occupy 4th position with 13 points.
Castro Daire come into this match with 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Machico have 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 2 recorded meetings, Machico have 1 win against Castro Daire, with 1 draw.
Prediction: Machico to win with probability 40%. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Avg goals: 1.83. Over 2.5: 28%. BTTS: 36%.




In their last 6 matches, Castro Daire have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Castro Daire have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Castro Daire's last 6 matches.
Machico are on a run of 6 consecutive undefeated matches.
In their last 6 matches, Machico have been unbeaten on 6 occasions.
Machico have won 5 of their last 6 matches.