The model estimates 1.27 goals for Amarante and 1.35 for Chaves. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Amarante and 6 for Chaves, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Amarante · 44%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Amarante is going head to head with Chaves on December 20, 2026 at 19:00. This match is part of Liga Portugal 2 — Round 15.
Amarante take on Chaves in the Liga Portugal 2 on 20 December 2026 at 19:00.
Amarante are currently placed 17th in the table with 5 points, while Chaves occupy 14th position with 8 points.
Amarante come into this match with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Chaves have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Amarante to win with probability 37%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 2.62. Over 2.5: 49%. BTTS: 55%.




Amarante have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 home matches, Amarante have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Amarante's last 6 home matches.
In their last 6 matches, Chaves have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Chaves have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Chaves's last 6 matches.