The model estimates 1.87 goals for Alverca and 1.02 for Nacional Madeira. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Alverca and 6 for Nacional Madeira, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Alverca · 58%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Alverca is going head to head with Nacional Madeira on February 21, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 23.
Alverca take on Nacional Madeira in the Primeira Liga on 21 February 2027 at 00:00.
Alverca are currently placed 7th in the table with 11 points, while Nacional Madeira occupy 15th position with 7 points.
Alverca come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Nacional Madeira have 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 5 recorded meetings, Alverca have 3 wins against Nacional Madeira.
Prediction: Alverca to win with probability 52%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 2.89. Over 2.5: 55%. BTTS: 55%.




In their last 6 matches, Alverca have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Alverca's last 6 matches.
Alverca score an average of 1.67 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
Nacional Madeira have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Nacional Madeira have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Nacional Madeira's last 6 matches.