European FootballTop competitionsNext match00d : 00h : 00m : 00sEuropean FootballTop competitionsNext match00d : 00h : 00m : 00sThe model estimates 2.44 goals for Southampton and 0.66 for Derby. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Southampton and 6 for Derby, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Southampton · 67%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Southampton is going head to head with Derby on November 21, 2026 at 12:30. This match is part of Championship — Round 16.
Southampton take on Derby in the Championship on 21 November 2026 at 12:30.
Southampton are currently placed 2nd in the table with 24 points, while Derby occupy 23rd position with 7 points.
Southampton come into this match with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Derby have 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Southampton to win with probability 67%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 3.09. Over 2.5: 60%. BTTS: 45%.
SOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERSOUDERIn their last 6 matches, Southampton have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Southampton have won 4 of their last 6 matches.
Southampton have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
Derby have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Derby's last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Derby's last 6 matches.
