The model estimates 1.69 goals for Pachuca (Mex) and 1.45 for Toluca (Mex). These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Pachuca (Mex) and 6 for Toluca (Mex), before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Pachuca (Mex) · 42%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Pachuca (Mex) is going head to head with Toluca (Mex) on November 21, 2026 at 23:00. This match is part of Liga MX — Round 17.
Pachuca (Mex) take on Toluca (Mex) in the Liga MX on 21 November 2026 at 23:00.
Pachuca (Mex) are currently placed 9th in the table with 51 points, while Toluca (Mex) occupy 6th position with 57 points.
Pachuca (Mex) come into this match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Toluca (Mex) have 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 65 recorded meetings, Toluca (Mex) have 27 wins against Pachuca (Mex), with 18 draws.
Prediction: Pachuca (Mex) to win with probability 42%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 3.14. Over 2.5: 61%. BTTS: 64%.




There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Pachuca (Mex)'s last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Pachuca (Mex)'s last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Pachuca (Mex) have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
In their last 6 matches, Toluca (Mex) have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Toluca (Mex) have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Toluca (Mex)'s last 6 matches.