The model estimates 1.37 goals for Nesebar and 1.35 for Fratria. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Nesebar and 6 for Fratria, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Nesebar · 41%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Nesebar is going head to head with Fratria on November 14, 2026 at 19:00. This match is part of Bulgaria Vtora Liga — Round 16.
Nesebar take on Fratria in the Bulgaria Vtora Liga on 14 November 2026 at 19:00.
Nesebar are currently placed 11th in the table with 18 points, while Fratria occupy 4th position with 22 points.
Nesebar come into this match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Fratria have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Nesebar to win with probability 40%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 2.72. Over 2.5: 51%. BTTS: 57%.




In their last 6 matches, Nesebar have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Nesebar have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Nesebar's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Fratria have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Fratria have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Fratria's last 6 matches.