The model estimates 2.13 goals for Hereford and 0.93 for Merthyr Town. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Hereford and 6 for Merthyr Town, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Hereford · 58%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Hereford is going head to head with Merthyr Town on December 26, 2026 at 18:00. This match is part of England National League North — Round 23.
Hereford take on Merthyr Town in the England National League North on 26 December 2026 at 18:00.
Hereford are currently placed 2nd in the table with 26 points, while Merthyr Town occupy 20th position with 15 points.
Hereford come into this match with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Merthyr Town have 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 2 recorded meetings, Hereford have 1 win against Merthyr Town, with 1 draw.
Prediction: Hereford to win with probability 60%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 3.06. Over 2.5: 59%. BTTS: 55%.
HERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHERMERHereford have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
Hereford score an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
In their last 6 home matches, Hereford have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
Merthyr Town have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Merthyr Town have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Merthyr Town's last 6 matches.
