The model estimates 1.36 goals for Bristol City and 0.85 for Derby. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Bristol City and 6 for Derby, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Bristol City · 45%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Bristol City is going head to head with Derby on April 24, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Championship — Round 45.
Bristol City take on Derby in the Championship on 24 April 2027 at 00:00.
Bristol City are currently placed 15th in the table with 15 points, while Derby occupy 23rd position with 7 points.
Bristol City come into this match with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Derby have 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Bristol City to win with probability 46%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.21. Over 2.5: 38%. BTTS: 44%.




There have been under 2.5 goals in 6 of Bristol City's last 6 matches.
Bristol City have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Bristol City have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
Derby have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Derby's last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Derby's last 6 matches.