The model estimates 1.77 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.08 for Derby. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Bolton Wanderers and 6 for Derby, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Bolton Wanderers · 52%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Bolton Wanderers is going head to head with Derby on January 30, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Championship — Round 29.
Bolton Wanderers take on Derby in the Championship on 30 January 2027 at 00:00.
Bolton Wanderers are currently placed 18th in the table with 14 points, while Derby occupy 23rd position with 7 points.
Bolton Wanderers come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Derby have 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Bolton Wanderers to win with probability 49%. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Avg goals: 2.85. Over 2.5: 54%. BTTS: 56%.




In their last 6 matches, Bolton Wanderers have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Bolton Wanderers's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Bolton Wanderers's last 6 matches.
Derby have won only 0 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Derby's last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of Derby's last 6 matches.