The model estimates 1.76 goals for Arouca and 0.70 for Nacional Madeira. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Saved model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Arouca and 6 for Nacional Madeira, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Arouca · 56%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Arouca is going head to head with Nacional Madeira on November 01, 2026 at 19:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 10.
Arouca take on Nacional Madeira in the Primeira Liga on 1 November 2026 at 19:00.
Arouca are currently placed 5th in the table with 17 points, while Nacional Madeira occupy 15th position with 7 points.
Arouca come into this match with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Nacional Madeira have 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Arouca to win with probability 56%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.46. Over 2.5: 45%. BTTS: 43%.




In their last 6 matches, Arouca have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Arouca have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
Arouca score an average of 2.00 goals per game across their last 4 home matches.
Nacional Madeira have won only 1 of their last 6 matches.
Nacional Madeira have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Nacional Madeira's last 6 matches.