The model estimates 1.23 goals for AD Merida and 0.90 for Ponferradina. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for AD Merida and 6 for Ponferradina, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: AD Merida · 44%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
AD Merida is going head to head with Ponferradina on February 06, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Spain Primera Division Rfef — Round 23.
AD Merida take on Ponferradina in the Spain Primera Division Rfef on 6 February 2027 at 00:00.
AD Merida are currently placed 17th in the table with 13 points, while Ponferradina occupy 19th position with 13 points.
AD Merida come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Ponferradina have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 1 recorded meeting, Ponferradina have 1 win against AD Merida.
Prediction: AD Merida to win with probability 43%. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Avg goals: 2.13. Over 2.5: 36%. BTTS: 44%.




In their last 6 matches, AD Merida have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
AD Merida have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
AD Merida score an average of 1.83 goals per game across their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 6 of Ponferradina's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Ponferradina have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Ponferradina have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.