The model estimates 1.03 goals for Moreirense and 1.45 for Arouca. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Moreirense and 6 for Arouca, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Arouca · 44%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Moreirense is going head to head with Arouca on January 24, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Primeira Liga — Round 19.
Moreirense take on Arouca in the Primeira Liga on 24 January 2027 at 00:00.
Moreirense are currently placed 10th in the table with 11 points, while Arouca occupy 5th position with 17 points.
Moreirense come into this match with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Arouca have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 1 recorded meeting, Arouca have 1 win against Moreirense.
Prediction: Arouca to win with probability 42%. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Avg goals: 2.49. Over 2.5: 45%. BTTS: 51%.




Moreirense have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Moreirense's last 6 matches.
Both teams have scored in 4 of Moreirense's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, Arouca have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Arouca have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
Arouca have won only 2 of their last 6 away matches.