The model estimates 2.99 goals for Benfica and 0.93 for AZ Alkmaar. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for Benfica and 6 for AZ Alkmaar, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Benfica · 71%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
Benfica is going head to head with AZ Alkmaar on January 27, 2027 at 21:00. This match is part of UEFA Europa League — Round 8.
Benfica take on AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on 27 January 2027 at 21:00.
Benfica are currently placed 1st in the table with 9 points, while AZ Alkmaar occupy 10th position with 6 points.
Benfica come into this match with 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from their last 6 completed matches, whereas AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
Prediction: Benfica to win with probability 71%. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Avg goals: 3.91. Over 2.5: 75%. BTTS: 58%.




In their last 6 matches, Benfica have been unbeaten on 5 occasions.
Benfica have won 5 of their last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of Benfica's last 6 matches.
There have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of AZ Alkmaar's last 6 matches.
In their last 6 matches, AZ Alkmaar have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
AZ Alkmaar score an average of 2.00 goals per game across their last 6 matches.