The model estimates 1.45 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.80 for Ajax. These scoring rates produce the outcome probabilities below. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Competition-fitted model calculation · · dixon-coles-v2 2.5.0
Recent-form panels contain 6 completed matches for AZ Alkmaar and 6 for Ajax, before kickoff. These panel counts are not the full model training sample. Injury and suspension coverage is unavailable; late team news may change the outlook.
Saved before kickoff: Ajax · 41%. . This is a timestamped database record, not proof of public publication or a placed bet.
Fair prices are model estimates, not bookmaker quotes. A likely outcome is not automatically a value bet.
AZ Alkmaar is going head to head with Ajax on May 09, 2027 at 00:00. This match is part of Eredivisie — Round 32.
AZ Alkmaar take on Ajax in the Eredivisie on 9 May 2027 at 00:00.
AZ Alkmaar are currently placed 5th in the table with 20 points, while Ajax occupy 3rd position with 21 points.
AZ Alkmaar come into this match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 completed matches, whereas Ajax have 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 6 completed matches.
In their last 112 recorded meetings, Ajax have 63 wins against AZ Alkmaar, with 24 draws.
Prediction: Ajax to win with probability 41%. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Avg goals: 3.25. Over 2.5: 63%. BTTS: 65%.




In their last 6 matches, AZ Alkmaar have been unbeaten on 4 occasions.
AZ Alkmaar have won only 2 of their last 6 matches.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 4 of AZ Alkmaar's last 6 matches.
Ajax are on a run of 6 consecutive undefeated matches.
In their last 6 matches, Ajax have been unbeaten on 6 occasions.
Both teams have scored in 6 of Ajax's last 6 matches.